The War Scenario

That region of the Middle East has always seen tension and war that goes back to the days of the Prophet Muhammad. This is mainly due to the everlasting dispute between Muslims on who should have been the next Caliph after Muhammad, Ali or Abu Bakar. This difference in perception can be seen at its worst case scenario in Present day Iraq, where Shia and Sunni Muslims are playing out their differences with suicide bombers and violent executions. The same pattern emerged during the Iran Iraq war, were Saddam Hussein with his Sunni Bath Party felt threatened by the rising fundamentalist Shia regime in Iran. The result was one of the bloodiest wars of the 20th century that even saw the use of chemical and biological weapons. This is not the only example of Muslims raising the sword on other Muslims in the region. The invasion of Kuwait is another good example of this feature. Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, owed money to the Kuwaiti Government so the best thing to do, was not only not to pay them but also to invade the oil rich country. The wars for oil and dominance in this region go far back and can also be very much present in the future. If Iran does acquire the bomb this will threaten not only Israel in the Middle East but every Arab leader that is a dictator, a monarch, or Sunni because sooner or later they will all be considered enemies of the revolution. In addition to the ideological differences in the region, the dominance for oil is of highest importance. If Iran were to become desperate financially in the future, it could look into invading one of its neighbors like Saddam in 1991. After the Americans pull out of Iraq, Iran can always claim it is sending troops to protect the Shia population of Iraq like the Syrians did during the Lebanese civil war, where in reality it is expanding its oil reserve.

“In any case, the potential for significant regional instability exists. A collapsed Iraqi state creates opportunities for covert Iranian intervention in the north and south- the regions that control most of Iraq’s oil” (Timothy D. Hoyt, Grave New World)

An Iran with a bomb will hardly be beaten back like the Iraqis in the Gulf War, thus it will be able to do as it pleases even if confronted by the mighty US army.
This kind of scenario is very real in the eyes of the Middle Eastern countries like Saudi Arabia, and Egypt, which have already started stating that they would also be interested in WMD.

“Iraq and Libya were stopped on the road, a failure to contain North Korea and Iran could have dangerous domino effects in East Asia and the Middle East”(Dr. Hans Blix)

Clip explaning the split in Islam. A must see for better understanding the difference between Sunnis and Shias