The War Scenario

That region of the Middle East has always seen tension and war that goes back to the days of the Prophet Muhammad. This is mainly due to the everlasting dispute between Muslims on who should have been the next Caliph after Muhammad, Ali or Abu Bakar. This difference in perception can be seen at its worst case scenario in Present day Iraq, where Shia and Sunni Muslims are playing out their differences with suicide bombers and violent executions. The same pattern emerged during the Iran Iraq war, were Saddam Hussein with his Sunni Bath Party felt threatened by the rising fundamentalist Shia regime in Iran. The result was one of the bloodiest wars of the 20th century that even saw the use of chemical and biological weapons. This is not the only example of Muslims raising the sword on other Muslims in the region. The invasion of Kuwait is another good example of this feature. Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, owed money to the Kuwaiti Government so the best thing to do, was not only not to pay them but also to invade the oil rich country. The wars for oil and dominance in this region go far back and can also be very much present in the future. If Iran does acquire the bomb this will threaten not only Israel in the Middle East but every Arab leader that is a dictator, a monarch, or Sunni because sooner or later they will all be considered enemies of the revolution. In addition to the ideological differences in the region, the dominance for oil is of highest importance. If Iran were to become desperate financially in the future, it could look into invading one of its neighbors like Saddam in 1991. After the Americans pull out of Iraq, Iran can always claim it is sending troops to protect the Shia population of Iraq like the Syrians did during the Lebanese civil war, where in reality it is expanding its oil reserve.

“In any case, the potential for significant regional instability exists. A collapsed Iraqi state creates opportunities for covert Iranian intervention in the north and south- the regions that control most of Iraq’s oil” (Timothy D. Hoyt, Grave New World)

An Iran with a bomb will hardly be beaten back like the Iraqis in the Gulf War, thus it will be able to do as it pleases even if confronted by the mighty US army.
This kind of scenario is very real in the eyes of the Middle Eastern countries like Saudi Arabia, and Egypt, which have already started stating that they would also be interested in WMD.

“Iraq and Libya were stopped on the road, a failure to contain North Korea and Iran could have dangerous domino effects in East Asia and the Middle East”(Dr. Hans Blix)

Clip explaning the split in Islam. A must see for better understanding the difference between Sunnis and Shias

The Terrorist Scenario

The Islamic Revolution of 1979 started in Iran but the plan was for it to spread all over the Middle East and to topple one dictator or monarch after another. This of course never did happen, for various reasons. Considering that Iran was occupied for 8 long years in the bloody Iran Iraq war that killed over a million people from both sides. Even during the long war the Iranian state still found time to sponsor terrorism, which took the form of international plane hijacking, hostage taking, and terrorist bombing. From the bombing of the US barracks in Beirut that killed 250 US marines to the attack on Jewish community of Argentina that killed more then 80 civilians, Iran was sponsoring terrorism directly. Today Ayatollah Khomeini is long gone but his vision of destruction is alive and kicking with the currant President of Iran. In the last Lebanon war Hizbollah gorillas (the same organization that attacked the US barracks in the 80s) bombarded Israeli cities with Iranian short, medium, and long range missiles. Considering that such a pattern could continue then a nuclear Iran could commit to arming terrorist organizations with unconventional weapons if the situation became fitting. Afterwards Iran can state like it did in the last war that they have never supplied anything to Hizbollah or any other terrorist group.

“Terrorist development was helped along greatly by the covert sponsorship of states such as Iran, Libiya, and North Korea” (Audrey Kurth Cronin, Grave New World pg.284)

“above all, the main target of these terrorists remains American power and the American-led global system” (Audrey Kurth Cronin, Grave New World pg.284)

Furthermore a nuclear Iran could step up its traditional support for terrorism knowing that it can never be invaded or taken into account once it has the security of a nuclear deterrent.

The End of Days Scenario

Ahmadinejad has stated on Al-Jazeera that “As the Imam said, Israel must be wiped off the map”. Some would argue that he is trying to indicate what a nuclear Iran’s intentions would be. When looking at such a scenario, some factors need to be taken into consideration. Israel is said to have had the bomb for more then 30 years with a stockpile of 100 to 200 warheads, some of which could already be pointed at Tehran. Even if Iran succeeded in launching a preemptive strike against Israeli land and air bases, there is still Israel's rumored 2nd strike capability from its German Dolphin class submarine force that needs to be taken into account. In addition to the possibility that Iran would face total destruction by the Israeli retaliation, its goal of liberating the Palestinians from Israel is absurd. This is due to the fact that geographically Israel is right next to Palestine, and a nuclear strike would have a devastating effect on both the Israeli and Palestinian population. Only a cornered, desperate, and insane leader would follow an Armageddon style scenario such as this, then again we are taking about a regime that sent children to clear minefields during the Iran-Iraq War.

Israeli Submarine movie

This is a movie i did for the Israeli Submarine School where i served my last year of my service.



Israeli Submarine Website

Sgt. Steven Kenigsberg

Steven Kenigsberg fell in combat on the 3rd of March 2002 he was 19 years old. Stevens close friend Tomer and I held a short memorial for Steven here in London. Tomer read Kaddish and we drunk JD in his name. Steven is deeply missed by his family and friends.